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编号:11495756
终末期肝病模型对失代偿期肝硬化患者预后的回顾性分析
http://www.100md.com 2007年3月28日 吕晓辉, 刘红波, 宋 敏, 王炳元
关键词:肝硬化;预后;终末期肝病模型;Child-Pugh分级;ROC曲线,吕晓辉,王炳元,刘红波,宋敏,通讯作者:,Prognosisanalysisofpatientswithdecompensatedlivercirrhosisusing
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     吕晓辉, 王炳元, 中国医科大学附属第一医院消化内科 辽宁省沈阳市 110001

    刘红波,
中国医科大学统计学教研室 辽宁省沈阳市 110001

    宋敏,
中国医科大学病理学教研室 辽宁省沈阳市 110001

    国家“十五”科技攻关课题, No. 20003BA753C

    通讯作者:
宋敏, 110001, 辽宁省沈阳市和平区北二马路92号, 中国医科大学病理学教研室. songmin@163.com

    电话: 024-83282199

    收稿日期: 2007-01-04 接受日期: 2007-01-20

    Prognosis analysis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis using the model of end-stage liver disease

    
Xiao-Hui Lv, Hong-Bo Liu, Min Song, Bing-Yuan Wang

    Xiao-hui Lv, Bing-Yuan Wang,
Department of Gastroenterology, the First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China

    Hong-Bo Liu,
Department of Health Statistics, China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China

    Min Song,
Department of Pathology, China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China

    Supported by
the National Medical Science and Technology Foundation during the 10th Five-Year Plan Period, No. 20003BA753C

    Correspondence to:
Min Song, Department of Pathology, China Medical University, 92 Bei’er Road, Heping District, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China. songmin@163.com

    Received:
2007-01-04 Accepted:2007-01-20

    Abstract

    AIM: To compare the capability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) in predicting the prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

    METHODS: The data of 171 DLC patients were analyzed with a cohort method. The patients were graded with MELD formula into 4 (MELD ≤ 9, 10 ≤ MELD ≤ 19, 20 ≤ MELD ≤ 29, MELD ≥ 30) and 3 (A, B and C) groups, respectively. The death rate was observed within 1 month and 3 months in different groups. The predictive accuracy of the two systems was evaluated by ROC curve.

    RESULTS: The mortality rates of patients with MELD ≤ 9, 10 ≤ MELD ≤ 19, 20 ≤ MELD ≤ 29 and MELD ≥ 30 were 10 ......

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