【摘要】 目的 探讨影响严重创伤病人死亡的危险因素及判断其预后。方法 对创伤严重度评分≥16的518例严重创伤病人进行Logistic多元回归分析，计算其生存概率。结果 虽然单变量分析表明病人的年龄、入院时昏迷、休克、住院期间出现并发症、受伤区域的个数、创伤前并存的慢性疾病和创伤严重度评分与死亡率明显相关，但Logistic回归结果表明创伤严重度评分、病人的年龄、创伤前并存的慢性疾病和住院期间出现并发症是严重创伤病人死亡的高危因素。生存概率方程表明其对创伤预后判断的精确度为89.76%，灵敏度为79.73%，特异性为91.44%。结论 创伤严重度评分、病人的年龄、创伤前并存的慢性疾病和住院期间出现并发症是严重创伤病人的危险因素，生存概率方程能精确的预测其预后。

    关键词 创伤 危险因素 Logistic回归 生存概率

    Study on prognosis of paitents with critical injury

    Zhao Gang

    Department of Orthopedics，152nd Hospital of PLA，Pingdingshan467000.

    【Abstract】 Objective To explore the risk factors for death in critically injured patients and predict prognoˉsis.Methods 518patients with severe injury，whose injury severity score(ISS)were more than16，were analysed with logistic regression，retrospectively.The probability of survival was calculated.Results Though single variable analysis showed the patients’age，coma on admission，shock and complications occured in the hospitals，numbers of injured area，prior chronic diseases(PCD)and injury severity score(ISS)were the significant risk factors for death.Logistic regression showed that only injury severity score ......