【摘要】 目的 对于肿瘤病人的预后分析，传统方法多集中于对预后相关因素的探讨，而由生存树方法得到的预后分组不仅可以有助了解具有相似预后人群的临床特征，还可以从中发现传统的生存模型不易发现的交互作用。 方法 本文结合生存树方法与传统的Cox回归模型，对235例胃癌病人进行预后分析。 结果 在Cox回归中，淋巴结转移、肿瘤大小、手术切缘有无癌组织作为3个独立的预后因素被筛选出来;对该资料进行生存树分析，得到3个预后子群，其中位生存期分别为24个月、12个月、5个月。 结论 将生存树方法与Cox回归模型相结合，可以得到更完善的预后分析结论。

    【关键词】 存活率;比例危险度模型;预后

    An application of survival tree method in the tumor prognostic analysis

    LANG Su-ping ，YU Hong-mei ，WANG Tong ，HE Da-wei

    1.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics，School of Pub-lic Health，Nanjing Medical University，Nanjing 210029，China;2.Department of Health Statis-tics，School of Public Health，Shanxi Medical University，Taiyuan 030001，China

    【Abstract】 Objective The traditional model focused on assessing the relative prognostic factors，while the survival tree method could identify subsets of patients with homogeneous clinical feature.It was also useful for detecting nonlinear interactions between baseline variables.Methods The survival tree and Cox regression were applied to analyze prognostic among235patients with gastric cancer.Results Lymph nodemetastasis，tumor size and cancer cells of operation cutting were selected to be independent factors in Cox regression.three subgroups of patients were found with median survival times of24 ......