【摘要】 目的 应用分类树模型分析广东省居民高血压的危险因素，并与logistic回归分析结果做比较。 方法 利用广东省2002年居民营养与健康状况调查数据，用分类树分析和logistic回归分析15343名常住居民高血压的危险因素。 结果 高血压的主要危险因素为年龄、血脂及肥胖。分类树学习集的灵敏度为91.0%，特异度为81.6%，总正确率为83.3%，约登指数为0.726;检验集的灵敏度为83.8%，特异度为80.5%，总正确率为81.2%，约登指数为0.643。logisic回归分析的灵敏度为31.6%，特异度为95.7%，总正确率为84.5%，约登指数为0.273。 结论 对高血压患者，尤其是老年人，要调节血脂，减轻体重。分类树分析较logisic回归分析分类效果好，结果直观，便于解释。

     【关键词】 高血压;回归分析;危险因素

    Logistic regression and classification tree analysis on risk factors of hypertension

    FU Chuan-xi，MA Wen-jun，LIANG Jian-hua，WANG Da-hu，WANG Sheng-yong.

    1.Guangzhou Center for Dis-ease Control and Prevention，Guangzhou 510080，China;

    2.Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention，Guangzhou 510300，China;

    3.Jinan Medical University，Guangzhou 510632，China

    【Abstract】 Objective To analyse the risk factors of hypertension using the methods of classification tree and logistic regression analysis and to compare the results of these two methods.Methods A cross-sectional analysis on hypertension was conducted using the data of15343inhabits from the Inhabits Nu-trition and Health Survey in Guangdong province in2002.Results The important risk factors of hyper-tension were age ......