【摘要】 目的 了解太原市禽流感流行危险度，提高禽流感预防主动性。方法 按行政区划1‰比例随机抽取家庭电话，20名调查员于2005年11月26～27日(星期六、星期日)进行流调。拨通1315个电话，1051位应答者完成了整个调查过程，应答率为79.9%(1051/1315)。危险度评价内容包括：家禽养殖职业暴露、鸟类宠物暴露、活鸡购买暴露、禽流感预防知识知晓率、居民卫生习惯和自我保护行为和心理影响。结果 太原市养鸡户职业暴露为6657户。鸟类宠物暴露113户。太原市家庭活鸡年购买数为1313977只，5.73%的居民购买时接触活鸡，年暴露率为75291次/年。居民禽流感知识知晓率为22.91%，自我保护行为和卫生习惯分值为73.46%。心理压力合计为8379分。可疑疫区与其他城区比较，可疑疫区居民更为担忧自己和家人感染禽流感(P<0.05)，同时采取自我保护行为的意识较强(P<0.05)。结论 太原市存在禽流感流行的危险性，危险度为10.39。主要危险因素为流感患病率高，市售活鸡未注射疫苗，居民禽流感预防知识知晓率低。疫苗接种、健康教育可有效降低禽流感流行的危险度。

     【关键词】 禽流感；危险因素；预防

    Risks analysis on avian influenza in Taiyuan

    ZHAO Bao-xin,ZHANG Yan-ping,HE Jin-kai,et al.Taiyuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention，Taiyuan 030001,China

    【Abstract】 Objective To understand the risk of avian influenza in Taiyuan,China,and build the capacity of emergency response.Methods A telephone survey of the general population was conducted from 9 a.m.to 10 p.m in 2 days of 26-27,Nov,2005,to determine the exposure of avian influenza from live poultry husbandry,bird pet raising,live chicken sales,avian influenza KAPB and psychological stress.Households were selected by using random digit dialing,and respondents were aged 16 to 87 years.Results Live poultry husbandry covered 6657 households,and bird pet raising 113 households.In Taiyuan city,householders bought 1313977 live chickens annually,and 5.73% touched them when buying,generation 75291 exposures annually.Knowledge scored 22.91%,and protective behavior 73.46%.Concerning psychological stress,the score added up to 8379.Statistically,significant difference was observed in 3 study areas (town with suspected avian influenza epidemic in chicken,the district where suspected town within it,and other districts in Taiyuan.) concerning psychological health effect and protective behavior (P<0.05).Conclusion The risk of avian influenza (risk:10.39) was increased by the high prevalence of flu and no inoculation in sales live chickens.The low degree of avian influenza knowledge was another potential factor for the epidemic.The preventive measures and health education should be taken to reduce the risk of avian influenza epidemic in local area. ......