[摘要] 利用特殊环境下人员生存能力的特点和高等概率论的基本概念，提出一种特殊环境下人员生存能力的数学模型，给出了该模型下的生存率函数、风险函数、亚健康概率及亚健康概率密度函数解析式，在理论上讨论了在一定百分比的人员不出现亚健康状态时、环境一定时和不同的环境时等几种情况下，生存率随着生存时间比的变化规律。为建立特殊环境下人员生存能力的评估体系的理论研究提供一种思路。

    [关键词] 生存率，数学模型，参数估计，评估体系

    A mathematical model for the evaluation of survivability of personnel in special environmental conditions

    LI Zhong-fu

    (Naval Medical Research Institute，Shanghai 200433，China)

    Abstract:A mathematical model of survival analysis in special environmental conditions is developed by using the characteristics of the survival curve and the basic concept of probability.In this developed model are given the survival rate function，the hazard function，the sub-health rate and the sub-health density function.This paper also presented the change pattern of survival rate that changed with survival time ratio under different conditions，such as no sub-health condition，ascertained condition and other differ-ent conditions.Our research efforts have given some idea for further theoretical research on the development of evaluation systems for the survivability of personnel under special environmental conditions ......