摘要：目的 利用灰色系统中的灰色包络模型区间预测方法建立糖尿病死亡率预测模型。方法 根据本区生命统计科提供的户籍居民2005-2009年的死亡信息，对本区糖尿病死亡率建立灰色包络模型，进行外推预测。结果 得到2010年糖尿病死亡率区间预测为[34.66671，35.49353]，基本预测值35.08012/10万与实际值36.14/10万相比，相对误差只有2.93%，拟合效果较好。结论 ①包络灰预测可以用于糖尿病死亡率的近期预测。②糖尿病死亡率逐年上升，正逐渐加剧患者的健康和生命危害，必须加以干预。

    关键词：糖尿病；死亡率；灰色系统；预测

    Forecasting Mortality of Diabetes Mellitus with Grey Wrapping Prediction in Zhabei District, Shanghai

    Wan Qiuping, Xu Wei, Long Yixuan, Zhang Guohui

    Abstract: Objective To establish a prediction model with Grey Wrapping prediction to forecast mortality of diabetes mellitus. Methods To establish a prediction model with Grey Wrapping prediction to forecast mortality of diabetes mellitus, according to the death information during 1990 to 2009 provided by Vital Statistics Division. Results The mortality of diabetes’ prediction interval for 2010 is [34.66671, 35.49353], and the basic predictive value is 35.08012 / 100000. Comparing with the actual value of 36.14 / 100000, the relative error is only 2.93% and the result is good. Conclusion ①Grey Wrapping prediction can be used to predict mortality in diabetes mellitus in the near future. ②The mortality of diabetes mellitus is increasing year after year, gradually hazarding health and life of patients, it should to take some intervention. ......