崔婷婷++++++熊季霞

    [摘要] 目的 根据2004～2015年江苏省综合医院人均医疗费用建立模型，预测2016～2020年江苏省综合医院人均医疗费用情况。 方法 基于GM(1，1)模型，借助Excel和GTMS 3.0，计算预测2016～2020年江苏省综合医院人均医疗费用。 结果 各模型预测精度较高，拟合效果较好，预测结果显示2016～2020年江苏省综合医院门诊患者人均医疗费用、门诊药费、住院患者人均医疗费用和住院药费将呈现逐年上升的趋势，药占比呈现逐年下降的趋势。 结论 建议建立长期有效的补偿机制、医疗服务价格动态调整机制和全民健康保险体系。

    [关键词] 人均医疗费用；药费；GM(1，1)模型；药占比

    [中图分类号] R197 [文献标识码] A [文章编号] 1673-7210(2017)06(a)-0138-04

    Analysis on the prediction of per capita medical expenses of general hospitals in Jiangsu Province

    CUI Tingting XIONG Jixia

    School of Heath Economics and Management， Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine， Jiangsu Province， Nanjing 210023， China

    [Abstract] Objective To establish a model based on the per capita medical expenses of general hospitals in Jiangsu Province from 2004 to 2015， and to forecast it from 2016 to 2020. Methods Per capita medical expenses of general hospitals in Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2020 was calculated and predicted based on GM(1， 1) model， Excel and GTMS 3.0. Results Each model′s accuracy level of prediction was rather high and fitting effect was qualified. The results indicated that the outpatient per capita medical expenses ......