【摘要】 目的：分析我国病毒性肝炎的年发病率动态变化及发展趋势，为卫生安全部门制定病毒性肝炎的预防监测措施提供决策依据。方法：采用自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARMA)对我国政府部门1975-2013年公布的法定传染病报告数据进行拟合。结果：基于AIC及SC最小原则选择ARMA(3，2)

    模型进行精度评价及外推预测，模型残差检验为白噪声序列，预测结果能够准确反映了中国病毒性肝炎发病率动态变化，平均相对误差仅为4.29%。结论：研究利用ARMA实现了全国病毒性肝炎发病趋势评价与预测，全国2014-2018年病毒性肝炎发病率呈现小幅下降趋势，未来一段时间内，病毒性肝炎的发病率(VPM)仍将处于较高水平。

    【关键词】 ARMA模型； 病毒性肝炎； 发病率； 预测

    【Abstract】 Objective：To analyze the dynamics of the morbidity of viral hepatitis in China and offer decision-making foundation to prevention and surveillance of viral hepatitis in China.Method：Autoregressive integrated moving average(ARMA) models were developed using reported data of viral hepatitis in China from 1975 to 2013 and evaluated on forecasting new data for the following five years.Univariate Box-Jenkins time-series analysis had been used for modeling and forecasting yearly notifiable infectious diseases from 1975 to 2013.

    Result：The optimum model of ARMA(3 ......