Falling EU population will affect healthcare provision
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《英国医生杂志》
The European Union is facing unprecedented demographic change, according to the European Commission, which is so concerned at the implications of a falling population that it has issued a consultation paper on the subject.
The native population of the EU's 25 member countries grew by only 0.04% in 2003, and of the 10 countries that joined the EU last year, all except Cyprus and Malta saw their populations decline. Across the EU the fertility rate is below the threshold needed to renew the population (around 2.1 children per woman), and in 16 countries it has fallen below 1.5. This contrasts with the situation in 1960, when the average fertility rate of the EU's current 25 members was just over 2.5 children and only Hungary and Latvia were below the renewal threshold.
The consultation paper indicates that the EU's current population of 458 million people will grow by just 2% by 2025—and only because of immigration—and thereafter will start to decline. In contrast the number of people living in the United States is set to increase by 26% over the next two decades.
Between now and 2030 the number of people of working age (15-64 years) in the EU will fall by 20.8 million. The paper estimates that by 2030 every two economically active people will have to take care of one inactive person and that the EU will have 18 million fewer children and young people than today. In the five largest countries of the EU, population increases over the next 45 years will be seen only in the United Kingdom (8%) and France (9.6%).
The commission warns that never before in history has there been economic growth without population growth and that the implications of the changes will reach far wider than just the status of older workers, pension reform, and the provision of health care.
The commission is asking what innovative measures can be taken to support an increase in the birth rate.(Rory Watson)
The native population of the EU's 25 member countries grew by only 0.04% in 2003, and of the 10 countries that joined the EU last year, all except Cyprus and Malta saw their populations decline. Across the EU the fertility rate is below the threshold needed to renew the population (around 2.1 children per woman), and in 16 countries it has fallen below 1.5. This contrasts with the situation in 1960, when the average fertility rate of the EU's current 25 members was just over 2.5 children and only Hungary and Latvia were below the renewal threshold.
The consultation paper indicates that the EU's current population of 458 million people will grow by just 2% by 2025—and only because of immigration—and thereafter will start to decline. In contrast the number of people living in the United States is set to increase by 26% over the next two decades.
Between now and 2030 the number of people of working age (15-64 years) in the EU will fall by 20.8 million. The paper estimates that by 2030 every two economically active people will have to take care of one inactive person and that the EU will have 18 million fewer children and young people than today. In the five largest countries of the EU, population increases over the next 45 years will be seen only in the United Kingdom (8%) and France (9.6%).
The commission warns that never before in history has there been economic growth without population growth and that the implications of the changes will reach far wider than just the status of older workers, pension reform, and the provision of health care.
The commission is asking what innovative measures can be taken to support an increase in the birth rate.(Rory Watson)