自己敲开机会的门目 录

    原著作者

    译者简介

    要点整理 Key Words

    5分钟摘要

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 1 为未来定下远大、亮眼、清楚的目标

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 2 确定这是值得一搏的赛局

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 3 寻求成长三级跳的机会

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 4 知道自己需要什么以及如何获得所需

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 5 想想看要有多少侥幸才能胜出

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维提升预测智慧的12项技巧 6 随时备有可行的后援计划

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 7 预测新趋势的后续发展

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 8 充分发挥不确定性低的赌注功效

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 9 找出减少或分散风险的方法

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 10 要看清楚自己在赌什么

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 11 了解后续衍生的所有赌注

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    提升预测智慧的12项技巧 12 知道何时应该退场然后转战下一场

    主要观念

    支持概念关键思维

    MAIN IDEA

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 1 Have big, impressive and

    vivid goals for your future.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 2 Make certain the game is

    actually worth playing.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 3 Look for the possibility of

    quantum leaps forward.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 4 Understand what's required

    and how to get it.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 5 Know how much magic will

    be required to pull this off.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 6 Always have a viable back-

    up plan standing by.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 7 Forecast the consequences of

    emerging patterns.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 8 Leverage all your low

    uncertainty bets to the hilt.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 9 Find ways to reduce or

    redistribute risk.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 10 Be crystal clear about what

    it is you're betting on.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 11 Understand all the follow-

    on bets you're locked into.Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 12 Know when to call it quits

    and move on.

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts原著作者

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华德·斯蒂文森(Eileen Shapiro＆Howard

    Stevenson)

    艾琳·夏皮罗是希尔克利斯特集团公司(The Hillcrest Group, Inc.)

    的创始人，这是一家顾问公司，专门协助其它公司(特别是前期创业投

    资)决定经营决策。夏皮罗曾经服务于麦肯锡公司，拥有5项专利权，还有几项尚在审核中。她也是《管理浪潮下的迷思》(Fad Surfing in

    the Boardroom)一书作者之一。夏皮罗毕业于布朗大学和哈佛商学院，目前担任几家公司的董事。

    霍华·斯蒂文森是哈佛商学院企业管理学教授，也是哈佛大学资深

    副教务长，毕业于史丹佛大学及哈佛大学。斯蒂文森同时也有企业经营

    实务经验，曾经担任普瑞科公司(Preco Corporation)的财务副总裁和

    董事，也担任过小型投资银行西蒙斯(Simmons Associate)的副总裁。

    此外，他也是《刀俎或鱼肉》(Do Lunch or Be Lunch)、《天使赢

    家》(Winning Angels)及《差强人意》(Just Enough)等多本书作者

    之一。译者简介

    陈芬兰

    台大经济系毕、纽约州立大学经济硕士，现任职金融界，兼职翻

    译。要点整理 Key Words

    预测(Prediction)

    人类一直以来都有预测未来的渴望，小从人生的变化，大到朝代更

    迭。中国自古流传的周易、紫微、面相、手相和生辰八字，以及西方惯

    用的星座、塔罗牌等，都是基于对未知事物的好奇与恐惧心理，发展出

    来的预测方法。历史上有许多预言家，就曾经准确地预测了若干重大历

    史事件。在中国有刘伯温著名的《烧饼歌》，在西方则有16世纪法国预

    言家诺查丹玛斯(Nostradamus)的预言诗《诸世纪》(Les Centuries

    Astrologiques)，他在诗中曾准确地预言了过去几百年来世界各地发生

    的许多重大事件和人物，例如拿破仑、法国大革命、世界大战、共产主

    义衰败，以及最近震惊世界的911美国被恐怖袭击事件等。

    即便是在科技发达的现代，预测在现代生活中仍然占有极为重要的

    地位。各国政府、大型企业等都会以“权威”机构的预测，作为制定政策

    的依据。现代科学预测，大多依靠历史资料的累积与分析，例如回归分

    析及推估等统计方法，以及各种的数学模型预测。从1年以下的短期预

    测，到5年、10年、20年的中长期预测；从社会动态和科技动态等概念

    性预测，到技术性的预测如经济增长、人口成长、交通流量、天气预报

    等。事实上，不论是哪种预测方法都是有其局限的，因为绝大部分的预

    测都是建立在假设的基础上，只要其中有任何一个或多个假设不成立，预测结果就可能大大不同，而且许多的假设实际上是预测学家对未来不

    确定因素的经验判断，带有很强的主观因素。顺势赌注(Left-Side Bet)

    “left-side bet”一词是由赌骰子的术语而来。一般美式赌场赌骰子的

    规则，是以丢出两颗骰子，骰子滚动停止之后，朝上的点数相加来决定

    输赢。通常协助游戏进行的共有4个人，坐在台子后方正中央的人是监

    督整个游戏进行的主持人，等于是该台子的老板。站在两旁的是庄家，这是与赌客接触频繁的人，负责收钱、理赔及筹码的管理，所有与赌注

    有关的事都是他们的职责。而站在对面中间的则是控场人，他的工作是

    在每一次掷出骰子之后，用木棒收回骰子，并依照掷出的点数，报出输

    赢结果，所以控场人是实际推动游戏进行的人。好的控场人，可以带动

    整场气氛，单看他的个人秀就很有意思了。

    每个参加赌局的人，都可以下注押骰子点数的大小，也都有成为掷

    骰人(Shooter)的机会。一开始是由台子主持人左手边的人担任掷骰

    人，之后便以顺时钟方向，由不同赌客轮流担任掷骰人。因此let-side

    bet就被引申为顺势而为的意思，相对地，right-side bet则被引申有逆势

    而为的意思。5分钟摘要不必是先知，一样可以先觉，抓住未来的先

    机! 英文

    想要自己敲开机会的门，创造好运势，进而左右自己的命运，就应

    该设法增加自己的“预测智慧”——在面临不确定的情况时，仍然能够开

    创自己想要的未来。执行以下4个步骤，就可以增加预测智慧。

    预测智慧跟遗传无关，而是可以培育的，方法是通过一套结合“决

    定方向——布局——规划——行动”的12项技巧。这12项技巧跟其它商

    业技巧一样，也能够精益求精。

    “我们所有人的工作都是建立在一个假设上，那就是任何有目

    的的行动都是赌注。我们的行动都是出于对未来的结果有所期待或

    怀抱希望，不过并不是十拿九稳。人是嗜赌的动物，终其一生都在

    赌。每次行动，都要投入时间、声誉、心力或金钱，但无论事前认

    为成功机率看起来有多高，都无法保证结果会一如计划，或一如所

    愿。只要在风险下把任何资产押上了，就是赌注。不管我们愿不愿

    意，人终其一生都不得不赌。我们所能做的就是，运用‘预测智

    慧’提高赌注在未来开花结果的机率。然后就能不必仰赖运气，可

    以自己创造运势，掌握自己的命运。预测智慧愈高，就愈能灵活迅

    速创造自己的运势，因为这种人可以看出最好的赌注，然后等待时机采取行动。这不只是因为运气好，预测智慧高的人会不断创造好

    运势，他们善于利用环境，创造出胜算最大的赌注，让结果能更接

    近自己追求的目标。你可以把预测智慧想成是一种经验累积的智

    慧，可以套用在一连串目标上。”

    ——艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 1 为未来定下远大、亮

    眼、清楚的目标 英文

    主要观念

    在赌注开始之初，愈了解自己想要创造什么样的未来，就愈能明智

    地选择和取舍。要充分了解自己所追求的大方向，然后作出符合愿景的

    抉择。支持概念

    任何状况下，你拥有的资源都是有限的——时间、金钱、声誉、心

    力等等。如果在达成次要目标时就把部分资源用完了，就有可能会错失

    了完成最有价值目标的机会。你必须将所有赌注押在自己最希望开创、实现的未来。

    要做到这点，在实务上应该做到以下几点：

    1. 很快地列出所有可能的目标——所有你想得到的每一个选项。不须

    分类或排列优先级，只要很快列出初稿。

    2. 挑选“前导犬”目标——也就是从整张清单中选出1、2项非达成不可

    的目标。如果无法决定，就找出排名前3或前4的优先目标。

    3. 接着从前导犬目标往后推——然后计划如何由现阶段的状态，到达

    未来要追求的成果。虽然了解这一路上有些计划肯定会有所改变，但要排除其它多余的选择，只专注在一条可行的道路上。这样可以

    让思绪更为清晰，不会觉得自己好像淹没在无数的选择，茫然没有

    头绪。

    4. 找出任何“情感回路”——也就是你可能会有的情绪或心理需求。如

    果不注意的话，这些需求是有可能会耗尽你所有资源的。每个人都

    有情感的包袱，扰乱我们的思绪，而偏离了最有生产力的方向。要

    好好了解什么样的冲动会让你的努力徒劳无功。有了这样的认知，就可以计划未来出现警讯时要如何消弭这些破坏性冲动。关键思维

    “你受困于一座荒岛时，如果可以选择一个人陪伴你，你会选

    谁？多年下来，对于这个荒岛问题，我们听过各式各样答案。通常

    都是要选自己的另一半、哲学大师或宗教领袖、性感电影明星、知

    名的说书人等。然后我们听到了发明鬼才狄恩·卡门的回答。卡门

    发明了个人交通工具‘赛格威’(这项产品发表之初叫作Ginger，中

    译为‘姜’)，以及其它多项装置，包括能爬楼梯的轮椅。在一次访

    谈中，卡门被问到荒岛的问题，他想了一会儿，然后说：世界上最

    棒的造船师。‘预测智慧’的第一项技巧，就是确定自己的‘大目

    标’：想象一下自己希望创造什么样的未来，而你的人生或你的公

    司必须成为什么样子才能达到这个目标。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 2 确定这是值得一搏的

    赛局 英文

    主要观念

    如果输的机率大于赢的可能，或者游戏规则掌控在他人之手，那么

    绝对不要把资源投进去。如果有必要，重新回到技巧1，创造一个能带

    来好运势的较佳赛局。支持概念

    在加入任何赛局之前，要先依据自己的标准和价值判断，确认这真

    的是一场值得参与的赛局。唯一合理的判断方式是，分析赌赢最有可能

    获得什么好处、赌输又会有什么风险，以及游戏规则是由谁操控的。

    面对任何局面，要分析加入赛局的利弊得失，合理的顺序如下：

    1. 找出赌赢的话会有哪些好处——如果事情一如计划，你会获得哪些

    潜在利益。也就是，在蛋还没孵化甚至还没下蛋之前，就已经在算

    究竟会生出多少只鸡。先做这件事，还可以约略估算会有多少机会

    成本——就是如果迟迟不行动会产生的成本。

    2. 检视所有风险——如果计划完全失败，会遭受什么样的损失。然后

    看看这些损失是不是可以处理，或者是不是超出你能承受的范围。

    3. 评估最有可能出现的结果是什么——如果游戏规则和最主要的规则

    制定者都维持不变，自忖你在这方面有多少自信。

    4. 想想是谁在操控游戏规则，或者可能由谁来操控规则——并且预测

    未来是不是可能发生任何有利或不利于自己的改变。评估看看，如

    果其它有影响力的人加入赛局，你的优劣势会有什么改变。

    5. 想想看，自己是不是有机会取得游戏规则的制定权——完全掌控赛

    局。

    优势、劣势、规则掌控三者之间，应该要达到什么样的平衡状态，这场赛局才会吸引人，不同公司和不同个人对这个问题都会有各自不同

    的看法，这并没有一定的标准，纯粹是判断问题。你只要确定下注时已

    经睁大眼睛评估过所有情况，不是还没有准备就绪就仓促上场。关键思维

    “如果根据你的评估，即使在最佳状况下，潜在利益也不是那

    么吸引你，而且你也无法掌控游戏规则来改变获胜者的利益。那

    么，光是考虑潜在获利，可能就足以让你断定这场赛局不值得你下

    场一搏。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 3 寻求成长三级跳的机

    会 英文

    主要观念

    不要排除会有任何新发展出现的可能。愈早看出情势发展的模式，并且调整计划充分利用情势转变，就能让自己处在比较有利的地位。把

    资源投入对未来最有帮助的地方，不要死守一成不变的计划，这样才能

    创造好运势。支持概念

    市场随时都会出现意外的变化。如果能很快看出这些转折点，就可

    以比竞争对手早一步善用契机修正自己的赌注。如果时机准确、行动明

    智，这么做就可能创造大幅或三级跳的成长。

    要抓住机会让成长三级跳，必须做到以下几点：

    1. 不断扫描前方——记下所有不寻常的细微变化。把这些变化当成是

    指示方向的明灯，判断这些是不是某种新趋势兴起前的异象或前

    兆。

    2. 不放过任何“模糊线索”——这些线索并不明显，往往需要细细体会

    找出弦外之音，甚至还要“求神问卜”。这种线索看起来无足轻重，但如果某种趋势已经在这些线索中露出端倪，就可以确定是一个不

    同的新时代即将开始。

    3. 作决定——决定这些不完整的数据是不是显示，现在是要采取进一

    步行动及不同做法的时候，或者这些数据根本只是噪声而已。人的

    本能反应是倾向于维持现状，希望船到桥头自然直，所以实际作决

    定时要小心谨慎并且深思熟虑。

    4. 根据决定采取行动——这是最艰难的一步。不过正由于你采取了快

    速、果决的行动，才能够好整以暇，在其它竞争者发现获胜机会之

    前，就先占领有利的山头。长期下来，就可能拉大跟别人之间的差

    距。关键思维

    “预测智慧愈高，愈能够灵活快速创造好运势，因为只要一有

    机会，就能抓住最好的赌注并且采取行动。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 4 知道自己需要什么以

    及如何获得所需 英文

    主要观念

    要去研究弄清楚在达成目标过程中跟“人”有关的部分。如果知道未

    来需要哪些人的协助，以及何时需要协助，就能在最佳时机延揽适当的

    人才加入。这将大大提升创造运势的能力。支持概念

    要达成任何有意义的目标，永远都必须把人的部分搞定。只要你知

    道需要哪些人才、如何网罗以及留住人才，就能提高成功机率。

    要知道在这方面究竟需要些什么，可以通过以下方法找出答案：

    1.从大目标往回推——草拟出你需要哪些人，以及他们必须在什

    么时候加入。例如，你想让公司股票上市，公司就必须有执行长、财务

    长和投资关系经理人，这样才能获得投资银行的重视。定出这些人员到

    位大概的时间表。

    2.运用同理心——思考什么样的报酬对这类人员最具吸引力。即

    使工作本身可能就很令人振奋、值得投入，但这些人还是需要获得优厚

    的薪资福利条件。在出面邀请适当的人员加入团队之前，就要先有腹

    案，这样才能增加自己的信赖度。

    3.把遇到的人分为以下3大类——

    核心盟友——跟自己拥有共同价值和利益的人。

    有潜力的人员——在某些特定场合才会派上用场的人。

    无用的人——意见相左或者漠不关心的人。

    接下来的工作就是培植核心盟友、扩大和有潜力人员之间的共同利

    益，并且说服无用的人做个旁观者，或加入别的赛局。

    4.检查所有“过去的轨迹”——过去曾经犯下的任何错误或矛盾的

    事，有可能会再浮出台面，挥之不去。猜测一下，你打算网罗的人会怎

    么看待你过去的决策，然后想好应对方法。关键思维

    “同理心是聪明赌徒的秘密武器。你愈了解那些能帮助你的人

    他们有哪些世界观，就愈能建构一个他们愿意为公司发挥聪明才智

    的环境。你愈能把他们的利益和你的利益挂钩，就愈能创造你的运

    势。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 5 想想看要有多少侥幸

    才能胜出 英文

    主要观念

    永远要搞清楚，自己未来的成功有多少是靠自己的技巧和纪律，有

    多少是靠纯粹的侥幸或者莫名的好运。一旦知道必须依赖多少侥幸，就

    可以决定是不是应该修改目标，选择其它成功机率更高、更实际的目

    标。支持概念

    很多人往往会不自觉地说一套、做一套，虽然他们已经有不错的策

    略，但做起来却完全不是那么一回事。只有真正了解自己实际会采取什

    么行动，才能评估是不是有合理的机会可以达成目标，或是绝大部分必

    须靠侥幸和运气才能成功。

    要做到这点，在实务上应该做到以下几件事：

    1. 跟着“金流”走——“金流”就是指为了得到想要的报酬，我们赌上的

    资产。对大多数公司来说，就是现金。只要看看预算是如何分配运

    用，就能知道管理阶层重视什么。真正的赌注都是大多数金钱汇集

    的地方，而不是冠冕堂皇的说词。

    2. 评估差距——也就是评估赌注开花结果的可能性。是不是有一连串

    合理可行的行动可以实现理想？或者理想成真的机会太渺茫，根本

    就遥不可及？

    3. 决定最佳前进方向——是不是应该继续坚持现在的赌注，改变目

    标？或者另起炉灶，改走一条合理可行的道路？死守着一线希望不

    是个好的商业策略。

    有时候，人们对于策略的开始和结果有许多构想，但中间的过程却

    是一片空白，必须靠1、2个奇迹才能跨越这道鸿沟。又或者，你必须投

    入的技巧和希望达成的目标之间有很大落差。这显然不是可行的策略。

    这时最好尽快面对现实，别再暗自祈求好运降临。至少你还可以改变目

    标，让这些目标更符合你的赌注，或者寻求额外需要的资源降低风险。

    只要了解落差有多大，无论哪一种方法都可以创造更多好运势。关键思维

    “所有赌注都始于意图。赌徒最重要的工作之一，就是了解自

    己的意图，以及这些意图是在推动你向前走、还是把你往后拉。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 6 随时备有可行的后援

    计划 英文

    主要观念

    一旦事情的发展不如规划时，往往没有多少应变的时间。但如果事

    前备有一套健全可行的“B计划”，就能有效响应，给自己创造好运势。

    运气好的话，由于你快速响应，也许还能捕捉到并利用一些意想不到的

    机会，或甚至可能化解新的风险。支持概念

    如果能开发且实地测试一套牢靠的B计划，一旦无法执行原始计划

    时，就可以派上用场，这样一来你就有更好的机会创造好运势。不过关

    键在于，心中这套B计划必须是面面俱到、健全、彻底的，不能只是现

    行计划稍做改变而已。

    开发一套有力的B计划时，往往会出现以下2种障碍：

    1. “盲从之人”——组织里的每个人都在快快执行现行计划，没有人有

    时间去开发好的替代计划。这个问题很容易解决。暂时停下脚步，问大家一些假设性的问题，然后指派人员提出一些计划来因应这些

    假设性问题。

    2. “大而无当之物”——没有人愿意打前锋，出面处理真正的问题，大

    家都宁愿做一些政治正确的事。例如，有些组织试图强化营销，但

    事实上“准时交货”才是造成客户流失的主因。除非有人有魄力先将

    这个障碍排除，否则不管怎么做都徒劳无功。

    一旦有了真正的B计划，就可以提高成功机率，有效创造好运势。

    但话说回来，开发B计划并不好玩，因为大家已经把大量时间与精力都

    投入现有计划。一旦大家习惯了某件事之后，通常不希望有人提醒他

    们，还有其它选择应该考虑。

    不过，开发可行的B计划的好处是，可以从中找出一些优点，放进

    现有计划。你或许可以撷取B计划的某些要素来提升现有计划，并且立

    即运用。B计划其余的部分就可以作为紧急应变计划。关键思维

    “事情的发展不如计划或预期时，时间就成了你最大的敌人之

    一。如果心中有了B计划，即使只是非常粗糙的计划，都可以让你

    在可用的时间内做出较佳的反应。预先准备完整的B计划，其实就

    已经是在创造运势了。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 7 预测新趋势的后续发

    展 英文

    主要观念

    几乎在所有情况，愿景和灵活度都比蛮力更有力量。要为自己创造

    运势，就要比别人早一步看出新崛起的趋势。这样可以让你领先其它

    人，早一步找出创造运势所需的“最佳击球点”，并且作出必要的判断。支持概念

    要迅速预测到逐渐成形的新趋势，你必须根据这些新趋势会对你产

    生不同程度的影响力与不确性，来建立自己的预测图。大多数情况，可

    以运用以下这个方法：

    ■影响力高、不确定性低——壁纸区

    就像大部分人从不会真正为壁纸伤脑筋一样，这些都是明知一定会

    发生的因素。尽管如此，你还是不应该把这些因素看成是理所当然，要

    竭尽所能善用这些因素。

    ■影响力低、不确定性低——蚂蚁雄兵区

    就像要聚集大量蚂蚁才能完成事情一样，应该留意一连串看似微不

    足道、但结合起来却力大无比的事情。如果够机灵的话，可以找出一些

    对自已有利的蛛丝马迹。■影响力高、不确定性高——万能牌区

    这些是完全无法预测的因素，但影响力大，可以载舟、也可以覆

    舟。例如，新产品取得主管机关许可，就属于这个区域。如果受到认

    可，销售就会暴增，但是如果被打回，过去大部分的投资就会付诸流

    水，必须从头开始。

    ■影响性低、不确定性高——暗渠区

    这些因素对最后结果不会造成什么影响，而且可能花了许多时间争

    辩定论仍然没有任何进展。所以与其浪费有限的资源在这些暗渠区，不

    如专心强化计划，处理那些对未来成果有重大影响的因素。

    注意，高报酬不一定会有高风险。如果能够很快看出新崛起的趋

    势，抢占到有利位置的次数就会比别人多。你将会知道哪里才是有利位

    置，然后就可以只凭借着你所看出的新趋势，采取果断行动。

    要针对所有情况定出自己的预测图，必须完成以下步骤：

    1. 定出时间表一对大多数公司而言，通常是3到5年。

    2. 列出所有可能的内部与外部因素一这些因素可能会影响你想达成的

    目标。在30分钟或更短的时间内快速列出来，不要拖上好几天或者

    几个星期。

    3. 依照影响力大小排列初稿——也许用1到10代表影响的程度，1是最

    小、10是最大。每项因素都给一个对应的数字，这样就可以看出哪

    些因素重要、哪些不重要。

    4. 再将整份名单依照不确定性的程度排列——依据的标准是，如果可

    以用叙述句来表达，就代表这项因素不确定性低；如果不能用明确

    的叙述句表达，不确定性可能就比较高。5. 再次确认影响力和不确定性的排序——并且决定高低界线的标准在

    哪里。

    6. 把所有因素放入格子内——并且按常识判断作最后确认。这张预测

    图是不是合理？如果不是，就移动变量，直到你觉得预测图可以

    了。

    不要忘了，预测图的用途在于帮助你能迅速看出新崛起的趋势，让

    你可以善加利用这个发现。要能够快速作出比较好的预测，才有时间下

    比较好的赌注。不要拘泥于细节的分析，只要每次都能比竞争对手早一

    步发现新事物，多多少少都能创造运势。关键思维

    “一味追求完美就失去制作预测图的意义——这是一场速度的

    竞赛。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森

    “之所以强调赌注，是要帮助我们在下注之前，先考虑自己对

    于无法掌握的各项因素预测可能会有哪些结果。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森

    “预测——你觉得自己未来会想要什么，以及如何达成这个想

    望——就像是赌局的结缔组织。对自己的预测非常清楚，就可以看

    出哪些是对的、哪些是错的，对个人和组织来说都是最快、最有效

    的学习方法。每学会一次更好的预测方法，就会增加后续赌注的胜

    算；每提高一次胜算，就会为自己创造运势。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 8 充分发挥不确定性低

    的赌注功效 英文

    主要观念

    尽量增加不确定性低的赌注次数。聪明的赌徒知道胜算有多大，并

    且只要有机会就会选择跟庄家赌同一边，而不是跟庄家对赌。以实务的

    说法，就是永远试图搭上众人皆知的新浪潮。支持概念

    实务的说法，就是尝试在壁纸区下注——不确定性低、影响力高。

    要找出这类型的商业赌注要运用以下技巧：

    1. 想象最佳的顺势赌注会是什么——要不是另创新局，就是修改现有

    赌注。例如杰克·威尔许接掌奇异电气时，他知道股价会随着盈余

    与营收增加而上涨。他便专心致力为每个事业单位创造更好的绩

    效，其它好事自然就跟着来了。

    2. 运用同理心找出潜在陷阱——也就是从对方的观点察看这项交易，并且试着理智预测对方会如何响应。如果他们的响应会造成两败俱

    伤，你可能要重新思考该怎么做。

    3. 找出理想的顺势赌注——并且和现有策略作比较。检视两者的差异

    (如果有的话)，并决定要怎么走下去，是应该加入新的赌注，或

    是改变方向？

    对企业来说，选择顺势的赌注，通常会采取跟一般认知不一样的决

    定。大多数产业，尤其是投入刚萌芽科技的公司，都试图以开发出最佳

    产品而在市场胜出。这是高度不确定的赌注，因为无法随时掌握客户愿

    意花钱购买什么。比较好的低风险策略是，掌握每家公司都必须使用的

    关键技术，快速定出产业标准。这么一来，不论谁在硬件战争中胜出，你都能大发利市。这就是微软在个人计算机市场发挥得淋漓尽致的策

    略，IBM个人计算机和其它组装计算机都使用微软所提供的操作系统软

    件。关键思维

    “有人说，所谓成功是‘得到自己想要的’，而快乐则是‘得到的

    东西自己也喜欢’。我们的说法是，称心如意是‘知道自己想要什

    么，然后把赌注下在能帮助自己得遂所愿’。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 9 找出减少或分散风险

    的方法 英文

    主要观念

    了解高风险交易，然后设法降低风险但维持原有的收益，或者风险

    不变、但增加收益，这样你就可以创造运势。不论哪种方法，都是要把

    不确定转为优势，而不是故意视而不见，希望风险会自行消失。支持概念

    风险是生活的一部分，人类的所有活动或多或少都有风险。要化风

    险为优势，就必须做到以下几件事：

    1. 先分解——把每个赌注都拆解为成效、胜算、后果三部分。有风险

    的状况通常都相当诡异，因此需要花点时间和精力看清所有风险。

    2. 设计一个简单的“不确定性坐标”——选择2个最重要的高风险变

    量，然后依照变量的不同组合得出4种假设情况。不断尝试各种不

    同的变量和情况组合，直到得出一个方格让你自觉能够掌握当前面

    对的主要风险和利益为止。

    3. 针对上述四个假设情况，找出减少或分散风险的方法——问问自

    己：“如果我知道3年后这件事会发生，现在会不会做不一样的赌

    注？”找出一个在4种假设情况都对自己有利的赌注。

    4. 如果所有可能的赌注都很糟糕，想想是不是干脆全面退出是最好的

    选择。

    5. 试试一些小额的附加赌注，当成一种应变策略——如果每一件事都

    不顺利，这些小投资可以成为响应的基础。在大多数时候，这些不

    寻常的小投资通常只是浪费金钱和时间，但偶尔小兵也会立大功。

    平时不妨播下一些种子，看看会结什么果。

    注意，如果现在的赌注只符合不确定性坐标方格中4种状况之一，风险可能就比你所认知的还要高。如果你以为这些赌注是“想都不必想

    就可以稳赢”的话，这就是一种警讯，显示你没有充分了解自己究竟承

    受了多大的风险。应该时时提醒自己，任何赌注都是向前看——昨日的

    对错都无关紧要，唯一重要的是，今天要怎么下注。关键思维

    “风险必然会发生，这给了聪明赌徒2种选择：一是移转或分散

    一些风险，长期下来就可以大大增加整体利益；另一种选择是，如

    果其它人为了增加确定性而愿意付出过高的代价，那么就选择作为

    承担风险的一方，然后收取对方所支付的大笔金钱，这样也能够提

    高整体收益。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 10 要看清楚自己在赌

    什么 英文

    主要观念

    很多时候我们会把注意力放在一些次要的问题上，而忘记下赌注的

    真正目标。这是失败的策略。想要持续创造自己的运势，就要非常清楚

    自己的核心赌注是什么。如果核心赌注很健全，处理其它细节就不成大

    问题，如果核心赌注有瑕疵，就放弃。支持概念

    如果你真的了解目前发展的状况，应该就能够扫除所有迷雾，并且

    把核心赌注浓缩成3张简报。1 行动

    明确说明你将采取哪些行动。

    就是新产品或策略的核心内容，至于其它华而不实的枝节就先搁置

    一旁。

    叙述要简明扼要，让急性子的老板都会感到满意。2 意图

    希望得到的结果，以及这些结果对组织会产生什么价值。

    一定要能详细说明你想达成的特定结果，否则就表示计划还不够充

    足。

    3 预测

    预测市场的走向，以及你会有多少自信。

    重要的是，弄清楚你做了哪些假设以及这些假设成真的可能性。

    矛盾的是，许多公司谈到次要问题时，可以说得头头是道，但对于

    核心赌注却往往说不清楚。这是失败的策略，因为核心赌注如果不是很

    健全，次要赌注或问题处理得再怎么好都没有用。如果要创造运势，就

    要非常清楚自己的核心赌注是什么，至于次要问题以后再处理就可以

    了。如果核心赌注有瑕疵，就先全力修补，不然就干脆退场。否则到最

    后所能做的，将只是试图为一个失败的提议套上一副乐观面具(有时候

    我们说是“锦粪墙、雕朽木”)。这样的粉饰其实是徒劳无功的。关键思维

    “只要涵盖了意图、预测和行动这三个部分就可以，至于三者

    的先后顺序就不重要了，并且要确认这三者之间是不是配合得很

    好。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 11 了解后续衍生的所

    有赌注 英文

    主要观念

    大多数赌注都有骨牌效应——一旦开始赌，就要一路赌下去。所以

    在开始下注之前，就先确认能够忍受接下来的一连串赌注。如果不喜

    欢，一开始就不要赌，不要浪费资源。支持概念

    开始走上这条路之前，必须确实了解以后将面临什么状况。大多数

    目标都必须靠一连串赌注才能达成，所以赌注一个接一个是常见的事。

    因此在踏出第一步之前，就要先确定自己愿意走完这条路，不要等到踏

    出之后才去想这件事。

    要做到这一点，在实务上应该做以下两件事：

    1. 分析哪些是已知接下来必须走的步骤——找出理论上你必然面临的

    所有可预见赌注。如果其中有哪些让自己觉得不放心，现在就把那

    些赌注找出来，不要拖延。

    2. 判断一下组织内部会不会对后续的赌注产生任何抗拒——因为这会

    从最初的赌注一路影响到最后的结果。如果确定后续的赌注会让部

    分利害关系人感到不放心，那么在下赌注之前，就先想想花这些工

    夫到底值不值得。想一想，跟那些不喜欢自己目标的人相比，谁的

    权力比较大。确定自己并不是在打一场毫无胜算的仗。

    商场上或生活上有些赌注应该称为“连锁反应”。一旦踏出第一步，会引发一连串的事件，让选择的空间愈来愈小。因此明天将做些什么，大部分取决于今天做了些什么。这样也无所谓，只要了解自己会面临什

    么状况就可以了。确定自己已经准备好要接受这些后果。

    后续的赌注不一定是好的或不好的，只要愈早看出来，就能够愈早

    判断，为了达成目标花这么多心力究竟值不值得。如果没有准备好要怎

    么处理后续必然衍生的赌注，一开始就不要涉入。关键思维

    “在我们看来，伟大领导者都具有持续押对赌注的能力——他

    们了解要达成目标必须做些什么，然后就去做。所以如果想成为有

    效率的领导人，就去训练说话和沟通的技巧，但更要多多练习预测

    智慧的技巧。在为自己、公司甚至国家选择领导人的时候，多看看

    这个人的赌注纪录，不必管他的演说能力强不强。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森提升预测智慧的12项技巧 12 知道何时应该退场

    然后转战下一场 英文

    主要观念

    每次下注会让自己置身某种赛局之中。在某个时点就必须决定是不

    是该退出现在的赌局，然后转战另一场截然不同的赛局。如果能够掌控

    退场的时间点，就能取得创造运势更有利的位置。支持概念

    在任何时候，可以选择：

    继续留在自己还有能力操控的赛局中——继续做应该做的事，直到

    别人把你驱逐出场或者赛局整个结束了。

    扩大赛局，设法争取更大的回报——让你可以追求比过去更大、更

    多的奖赏。

    退出现在的赛局——转战其它不同领域的赛局，争取跟过去完全不

    同的特殊回报。

    在任何时候，要决定应该采取什么行动路线时，必须搞清楚以下3

    件事：

    1. 对现况的满意度——对目前所得到的结果有多么满意。

    2. 如果持续目前的赛局，预测会有哪些回报——未来的利益、未来的

    风险以及未来游戏规则制定者，这3个变量是不是很稳定、可以预

    测。在这个步骤中，你要评估的是，如果维持现况会失去更多、还

    是得到更多。

    3. 自己的意图——未来想达到的结果。例如，是不是希望得到更多现

    在所得到的东西，或是想要其它完全不同的东西？

    如果把这3项因素一起考虑，就能够决定究竟应该维持现况，还是

    转换跑道是比较合理的。严格说来，为未来所作的决定，应该完全取决

    于你预期未来会有多大的利益，以及自己的意图究竟是什么，过去的经

    历不应该影响个人的决定。

    最后，以下6件事可以增强上述12项技能的效力，进而增加预测智慧：

    1. 每次都要运用所有12个步骤——这样可以避免和预防任何因遗漏而

    发生的失误。运用的步骤愈完整，增加预测智慧的机会就愈大。放

    手去做，可以依照不同状况改变先后次序，但一定要做完全部12个

    步骤。

    2. 记下你对每一个步骤的想法——就可以拥有永久的纪录。把事情记

    录下来，也可以强迫自己把事情想得更清楚。如果已经养成记录的

    习惯，经过一段时间，就会发现自己的判断变得更为敏锐，而且不

    断会想出新的点子。

    3. 尽快完成12个步骤——这里说的是几分钟，而不是一头栽进去花上

    几天或几周的时间。事后可以再回过头来补充一些细节，但要很快

    作决定。大多数的投资，都存在“先占优势”，应该充分利用这个优

    势。如果一直等到其它公司都发现了这个优势时才采取行动，就会

    错失初期丰厚的利益。

    4. 谨记这12项技巧的唯一目的是要帮助自己押对注——而不是要完美

    解决所有细节问题。运用这些技巧，然后下注；下一回合再运用这

    些技巧，然后下更好的赌注。回去工作吧，不要老是在这些技巧上

    吹毛求疵。

    5. 要认清，在状况不明时采取行动是很恐怖的——因为必须在所有事

    情确定之前就采取行动。一旦有了新的信息，本来看起来明智的做

    法，有可能在今日看来就变得非常愚蠢。没关系——这就是赌徒的

    宿命。继续向前看，并且运用上述12项技巧提升未来的预测智慧。

    持续练习就可以为自己创造运势。

    6. 享受赛局——认清在职业生涯中的赌注总是有失有得，有些失败、有些大好。单纯地享受参与赛局本身的乐趣，放轻松好好享乐。关键思维

    “拥有预测智慧，并不能让你脱胎换骨，但可以让你提升自

    己，更有能力做到你认为是有助于开创自己理想未来的事。尽情享

    受赛局的乐趣，并且从中获取利益，即使失败，也要不断学习。无

    论是正面的还是负面的，记取教训也是学习的一部分，只要抱

    持‘胜不骄、败不馁’的态度。你一定还是会不断犯错，会犯很多

    错，但也许次数会愈来愈少，久而久之，只会少数几次是犯下真正

    严重的错误。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森

    “你可以以过去为镜，但不能改变过去。对未来保持憧憬，运

    用预测智慧开创你想要的未来。”

    艾琳·夏皮罗＆霍华·斯蒂文森MAIN IDEA

    中文

    To by have better control of your destiny, focus on increasing your

    predictive intelligence -your ability to act in the face of uncertainty to

    create the future you desire. Predictive intelligence grows when the four-step

    process is followed:

    Predictive intelligence is not something you're either born with or you're

    not. Rather, predictive intelligence is generated by a set of twelve orient-

    organize-plan-act! skills that can be improved and enhanced, just like any

    other business skills.

    All our work is based on the premise that every purposive action is

    a bet; one acts now on the expectation or hope, but not the certainty, of

    the results that will be achieved in the future. Humans are gambling

    animals. We all gamble all the time. Every time we act, we invest time,or reputation, or effort, or money with no guarantee that the results we

    seek, no matter how likely they may seem, will occur as we have

    planned-or as we will desire when the results occur. Once we've placed

    any of our assets at risk, we've placed a bet. No matter what our

    preferences, none of us can avoid gambling as we live our lives. Whatwe can do is use our Predictive Intelligence to up the odds that over

    time, the portfolio of bets we place will lead to the kind of future or

    futures we envision or desire. Then we can go from depending on dumb

    luck to making our own luck and taking more control over our destinies.

    The higher your Predictive Intelligence, the more agile and fast you will

    be at making your own luck by identifying the best bets and then taking

    action when and while opportunities are available. This is more than

    being lucky; people with high PI consistently make their own luck; they

    take whatever circumstances they are in and create bets with the best

    odds for getting them closer to the outcomes they seek. You can think of

    Predictive Intelligence as a kind of consistent street smarts applied to a

    series of goals

    —Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 1

    Have big, impressive and vivid goals for your

    future. 中文

    Main Idea

    The better you understand at the beginning of your bet what the future is

    you're trying to create, the more wisely you will make choices and trade-offs.

    Be very clear about understanding the big picture you want and then make

    choices that will be consistent with that vision.Supporting Ideas

    In any situation, you always have a finite amount of resources-time,money, reputation, effort, etc. If you use up some of your resources on

    achieving secondary goals, you might miss the opportunity to achieve

    whatever will be of most value to you. You have to anchor all bets around the

    kind of future you most want to create and bring about.

    To achieve this in practice:

    1. Create a quick laundry list of all your possible objectives-every option

    you can think of. Don't sort or prioritize this list, but create a fast first

    draft

    2. Pick your lead dog objectives-that is, go through your list and decide

    which one or two goals are must-haves. If you can't do this, rank your

    top three or four objectives.

    3. Now look backwards from your lead-dog objectives-and plan out how

    you'll get from where you are today to where you want to be in the

    future. Realize that some of your plans will change along the way quite

    naturally, but cut out all the extra options and focus on one path that will

    work. This will create some clarity in your thinking rather than feelings

    of being overwhelmed by choices.

    4. Look for any emotion loops -the emotional or psychic needs you may

    have which can and will drain off your resources if you're not careful.

    All of us have emotional baggage that distracts us from doing what's

    most productive all the time. Attempt to better understand what urges

    can sidetrack your efforts to be productive. Armed with this knowledge,you can then plan how to offset those destructive urges in the future

    when warning signs appear.Key Thoughts

    You're stranded on a desert island. If you could choose one person

    to be stranded with you, who would it be? Over the years, we've heard

    all sorts of answers to the deserted-island question. Usually the person

    selected is one's spouse, a great philosopher or religious leader, a sexy

    movie star, or a famed teller of tales. Then we heard Dean Kamen's

    response. Dean Kamen is the inventor of the Segway personal transport

    system plus scores of other devices including a wheelchair that climbs

    stairs. When Kamen was asked the deserted-island question in the

    course of an interview, he thought for a moment and then said……the

    world's best boat builder. The first skill of Predictive Intelligence is

    identifying your Big Goals: imagining the future you want to create and

    envisioning what your life, or your company, will have to look like to

    achieve these goals.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 2

    Make certain the game is actually worth playing.

    中文

    Main Idea

    Never allocate resources where the likely downside outweighs the

    potential upside or where the rules of the game are controlled by others.

    Instead, if necessary, go back to skill1 and invent a better game where you

    can make your own luck.Supporting Ideas

    Before plunging into any situation, make sure it's a game actually worth

    playing by your own standards and values. The only reasonable way to make

    this decision is to analyze what are the likely upside benefits, downside risks

    and who controls the rules.

    A logical sequence for doing this is in any new situation:

    1. Figure out what all the upsides are-all the potential benefits you stand to

    gain if everything goes as planned. In a way, this is counting your

    chickens before they hatch or even before the eggs have been laid. By

    doing this first, you'll also get a feel for any opportunity costs-the costs

    that will be incurred if you delay acting.

    2. Look at all the downsides-what you stand to lose if the proposal fails

    completely. Decide whether the loss is manageable or whether it's more

    than you could stand.

    3. Assess what the most likely result will be-if the current rules and the

    most powerful rule-makers stay the same. Look at the degree of

    confidence you feel in this regard.

    4. Think about who does or could control the rules-and forecast whether

    any changes that might come would work for or against your interests.

    Look at how your upside and downside will vary if someone else with

    influence enters the game.

    5. Figure out whether there is any opportunity for you to assume the rule-

    maker role-and take complete control of the game.Different companies and different people will have numerous opinions

    on what is and isn't an attractive balance between upside, downside and

    control of the rules. There is no definitive standard in this regard, but it is a

    judgment call. Just make certain you're making bets with your eyes open

    rather than being only partly prepared to play to win.Key Thoughts

    If your assessment is that even in the best of circumstances, you

    don't much like the upsides and you don't think you can grab control of

    the rules to change the prizes, then just looking at the upsides may

    already have given you enough information for you to determine that

    this game is not worth playing, for you.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 3

    Look for the possibility of quantum leaps

    forward. 中文

    Main Idea

    Be open to the possibility of new developments. The earlier you can see

    emerging patterns and adjust your plans to capitalize, the better placed you

    will be. You'll make your own luck by investing your resources where they

    will do the most good in the future rather than staying with inflexible plans.Supporting Ideas

    Unexpected shifts will happen all the time in the marketplace. If you see

    these turning points quickly, you can then take advantage of a window of

    opportunity to revise your bets before any of your competitors can do the

    same. Doing this might generate a substantial or quantum leap forward if you

    time your move astutely and act intelligently.

    To make a call on when it's time for a quantum leap:

    1. Consistently scan the horizon-and keep a running list of all the little bits

    of data you note that are outside what you would expect to see. Treat

    these as neon clues and try to decide whether they are oddities or

    forerunners of an emerging new pattern.

    2. Add in any fuzzy clues you pick up on-those things that aren't obvious

    and that require you to read between the lines or even read the tea

    leaves. These are the sorts of clues that appear inconsequential in and

    of themselves, but when part of a larger pattern definitely signal a new

    and different era is about to begin.

    3. Make the call-decide whether the incomplete data you have suggests it's

    time to make a leap and act decisively in some different way, or whether

    the clues you've gathered are just a bit of background noise. Your

    natural inclination will be to stick with the status quo and hope

    everything will work out all right in the end so be very careful and

    deliberate about actually making a decision.

    4. Act on what you've decided-the hardest step of all. Take comfort,however, from the fact that by acting quickly and decisively, you canseize the high ground before any competitor has a look-in. Over the long

    run, this may make a huge difference to how you fare.Key Thoughts

    The higher your Predictive Intelligence, the more agile and fast

    you will be at making your own luck by identifying the best bets and

    then taking action when and while the opportunities are available.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 4

    Understand what's required and how to get it. 中

    文

    Main Idea

    Study and understand the people part of achieving your objectives. If

    you know whose support you're going to need and when you'll need their

    help, you can then work to get the right people on board at the most

    opportune time. This will greatly enhance your ability to make your own

    luck.Supporting Ideas

    Achieving any meaningful objective always requires that you get the

    people part of the equation right. You increase your odds of success when

    you understand who you need to have on board, how you will enlist them and

    what it will take to keep them.

    To understand what's required in this area:

    1.Work backwards from your big goal-and sketch out who you'll need

    and when they'll need to get involved. For example, if you want to take your

    company public, your enterprise will need a CEO, a CFO and an investment

    relations manager in place before any investment bank will look at you

    seriously. Develop a rough timetable of when the right people need to come

    on board.

    2.Use empathy-and think about what sort of rewards people of that ilk

    are most likely be attracted by. Even though you may be offering the

    opportunity to work on something exciting and noteworthy, these people will

    still need some basic elements of a competitive remuneration package. Plan

    ahead so you can be credible when you approach the right people to join your

    team.

    3.Classify the people you meet into three broad categories-

    Core allies-with who you share values and interests.

    Possibles-people who fit your needs on a situational basis.

    Null-setters-the people who oppose you or are indifferent.Your task is then to nurture your core allies, expand the areas of overlap

    between your interests and the personal interests of the possibles, and to try

    to convince the null-setters to sit out the game or play an alternative game

    instead.

    4.Check for any vapor trails -any past mistakes you've made or any

    contradictory things you may have done in the past and that have the

    potential to come back and haunt you. Try and anticipate how your past

    decisions will be viewed by those you're trying to recruit at present and plan

    accordingly.Key Thoughts

    Empathy is a hidden weapon of the smart gambler. The more you

    understand the world from the point of view of the people whose help

    you need, the better able you will be to structure situations in which they

    will want to use some of their marbles to help you in your campaigns.

    And the more you can align their interests with yours, the more you are

    making your own luck.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 5

    Know how much magic will be required to pull this

    off. 中文

    Main Idea

    Always know how much your future success will depend on your own

    skills and discipline and how much pure magic or blind luck will be required.

    When you know how much magic will be required, you can revamp your

    goals to ones that have better chances of realistically succeeding.Supporting Ideas

    Loads of people say one thing but do another without realizing it. They

    have a formal strategy that sounds good but then do something entirely

    different. When you genuinely know what your real-world actions will be,you can then assess whether you have a logical chance of achieving what you

    want or whether a big dose of magic and some luck will be required.

    To do this in practice:

    1. Follow the currency -the type of assets you place at risk to generate

    the returns you're after. For most businesses, this will be cash. When you

    look at how budgets are allocated and then used, you get a good feel for

    what management places top priority on. The real bet is where most of

    the currency goes, not what is said for window-dressing purposes.

    2. Assess the gap-meaning evaluate how likely it is those bets will generate

    the desired result. Is there a feasible and logical series of moves that will

    bridge the gap, or is the possibility of a positive outcome so remote it's a

    real long shot?

    3. Decide on the best way forward-should you change your goals and hold

    on to your current bets, or would it be better to start making bets that

    will logically lead you in the right direction? Hoping against hope isn't

    really a great business strategy.

    Sometimes, people have loads of details about both ends of their

    strategy but a gap in the middle that will require a miracle or two to get

    across. Or there may be a huge gap between the skills you have to invest andthe goals you hope to achieve. Obviously, that's not really a viable strategy at

    all. It's far better to get everything out in the open as soon as possible rather

    than secretly hope you'll get lucky. At least you can then change your goals to

    be more in line with what you're betting or seek out the additional resources

    required to lower your odds. Either way, by understanding the gap, you can

    make more of your own luck.Key Thoughts

    All bets start with intent. One of your most important tasks as a

    bettor is to understand your own intents and whether they are pushing

    you forward or pulling you back.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 6

    Always have a viable back-up plan standing by.

    中文

    Main Idea

    When events unfold differently from what you have planned, you just

    won't have much time available to respond. If you've prepared a robust and

    viable plan B in advance, you can make your own luck by being in a position

    to respond productively. With a little bit of luck, your ability to respond

    quickly may even allow you to capture and exploit some unanticipated

    opportunities or possibly even offset new risks.Supporting Ideas

    If you can develop and field test a backup plan that is solid enough that

    you could rely on it if your original plan turns out to be impractical, you'll be

    in a much stronger position to create your own luck. The key, however, is to

    have a solid plan B in mind that is broad, robust and radical rather than just a

    minor variation on your existing plan.

    Two things typically get in the way of developing strong plan B's:

    1. Speedboat wakes -everyone in the organization is going so fast to

    execute the current plan that nobody has had the time to develop a good

    alternative plan yet. Fixing this is easy. Stop and ask some what-if

    questions, and then assign people to come up with plans on what to do if

    any of these hypothetical situations actually arise.

    2. Corporate white elephants -nobody wants to take the initiative and

    deal with the real issue rather than the one that sounds politically

    correct. For example, some organizations try and beef up their

    marketing when in reality on-time delivery is the real issue that's driving

    customers away. Regardless of what else is done, the situation won't turn

    around for the better until someone has the gumption to actually shoot

    the elephant and then move on.

    If you create a genuine plan B, you can enhance your odds of success

    and effectively make your own luck. Having said that, developing a plan B

    won't be fun because everyone will have already invested loads of time and

    effort into the current plan. When people are comfortable with something,they don't like being reminded there are other options they also should be

    considering.

    The good thing about creating a workable plan B, however, is you can

    then go through it and look for features that can be grafted back into your

    current plan. You might be able to upgrade your existing plan by taking a few

    of the plan B elements and using them right now. The rest of the plan B can

    then serve as your contingency plan.Key Thoughts

    Time is one of your biggest enemies when events unfold

    differently from what you had planned or hoped. Having a Plan B in

    mind, even a very rough Plan B, puts you in position to respond well

    and in the time available. You have made your own luck by having

    thought through your Plan B-before you needed it.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 7

    Forecast the consequences of emerging patterns.

    中文

    Main Idea

    In almost every situation, vision and agility is more powerful than raw

    brute force. To make your own luck, try and see emerging patterns before

    anyone else does. This will give you a head start on identifying the sweet

    spots and making the judgment calls you need to generate your own good

    luck.Supporting Ideas

    To forecast emerging patterns quickly, develop your own prediction

    maps based on the degree of impact and uncertainty. Most likely, you'll be

    able to use something along these lines:

    ■High impact, low uncertainty-The Wallpaper Zone

    Just like most people never really think about their wallpaper, these will

    be the factors that you know are going to happen. Instead of taking them for

    granted, you should do all you can to use these factors advantageously.

    ■Low impact, low uncertainty-The Ant Colony Zone

    Just like it takes a lot of ants combined to achieve things, you should be

    watching out for a series of things that mean little in and of themselves butcan be powerful when combined. Here you look for little details that can be

    used to your advantage if you're astute enough.

    ■High impact, high uncertainty-The Wild Card Zone

    These are the completely unpredictable factors that can work massively

    in your favor or equally powerfully against you. For example, getting

    regulatory approval for your product to be sold will be in this zone. If you get

    the thumbs-up, your sales will boom. But if you get the thumbs-down, much

    of your investment to date will need to be written off and you'll have to start

    over.

    ■Low impact, high uncertainty-The Sink Hole Zone

    These are the factors that really won't have much impact on your

    ultimate results one way or another, and you could spend hours on end

    debating them and still be no further ahead. Instead of wasting your scarce

    resources in a sink hole, you'd be far better off focusing on how to sharpen

    your plans to deal with the factors that will make the biggest difference to

    your future achievements.

    Note that higher returns don't automatically entail higher risk. Instead, if

    you can see emerging patterns quickly, you can end up in the right places

    more frequently than others. You'll be able to see where the right place to be

    is and then act decisively on the strength of the patterns you see emerging.

    To develop your own prediction maps for any situation:

    1. Define your time frame-which for most corporations is usually three tofive years.

    2. List all possible internal or external factors-which could possibly impact

    on the objectives you wish to achieve. Go through this quickly in 30

    minutes or less rather than spending days or weeks on this.

    3. Rank your first-draft list in order of impact-perhaps by using a scale

    where 1 is the lowest impact and 10 is the highest. Give each factor a

    relative ranking so you can see which factors are important and which

    are not.

    4. Now go through your list and rank by degree of uncertainty-on the basis

    that if you can express the factor as a statement, it will have low

    uncertainty. If you cannot express the factor as a definitive statement,the chances are you're dealing with something that has a high degree of

    uncertainty.

    5. Go through and double-check your impact and uncertainty rankings-and

    decide where the line should be drawn between the low and high

    classifications in each dimension.

    6. Put the factors on the grid-and do a final common sense check. Does the

    map make sense to you? If not, move the variables around until you feel

    comfortable with your prediction map.

    Remember, the purpose of a prediction map is to help you see emerging

    patterns quickly enough that you can take advantage of that knowledge. You

    want to be able to make better predictions fast so you still have the time to

    make better bets. Don't get mired down in detailed analysis. Every time you

    notice something that is happening quicker than your competitors, you are

    making your own luck to a greater or lesser degree.Key Thoughts

    Trying to construct a perfect Prediction Map misses the point-this

    is a race that goes to the swift.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson

    The thing about betting is, it helps to think about the predictions

    you're making about key factors outside your control before you place

    your wager.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson

    Predictions-about what you think you will want in the future and

    how to achieve those outcomes-are the connective tissue of any bet.

    Being conscious of the predictions you are making, so you can see

    which ones were right and which were wrong, is one of the fastest and

    most effective ways to learn both on a personal level as well as on an

    organizational level. Every time you learn how to predict better, you up

    your odds on your next series of bets; and every time you up your odds

    on your bets, you make your own luck.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 8

    Leverage all your low uncertainty bets to the hilt.

    中文

    Main Idea

    Always do all you can to increase the number of low uncertainty bets

    you make. Smart gamblers know the odds and try to bet with the house rather

    than against it whenever possible. In practical terms, always try and ride the

    impending wave that everyone knows is coming.Supporting Ideas

    In practical terms, you're trying to invest in Wallpaper zone bets-those

    with low uncertainty and high impact. To find these types of business bets:

    1. Imagine what are the very best left-side bets you can make-either those

    you can create by entering into a new situation or those you can re-

    create by revising current bets. For example, when Jack Welch took over

    at General Electric, he knew the stock price would go up as earnings and

    revenues increased. He focused on generating better performance from

    each business unit, and then all the other good stuff happened

    automatically.

    2. Apply some empathy to check for potential traps-that is, look at the

    proposed deal from the other person's point of view and try to make

    some intelligent predictions about what they will do to respond. If

    they're likely to respond with something that will hurt both you and

    them, you may want to rethink what you're about to do.

    3. Come up with your ideal left-side bets-and compare that you're your

    current strategy. Look at the differences (if any) and figure out what

    you'll do moving forward. Should you go with your new bets or take

    some different direction instead?

    Making left-side bets will be counterintuitive for a business. In most

    industries, especially those based around an early-stage technology, everyone

    tries to win by developing the best product. These are high uncertainty bets

    because it's not always clear what customers will be willing to pay for. A

    better low risk strategy is to try and set the de facto industry standard fast bysecuring control of a key technology everyone uses. That way, no matter who

    wins the hardware war, you can still prosper. This is the strategy Microsoft

    used to great effect in the personal computer market when it provided the

    operating system software for the IBM personal computer and all its clones.Key Thoughts

    Some people say that success is getting what you want, and

    happiness is wanting what you get. We say that satisfaction is knowing

    what you will want and then placing the bets that will help you get

    there.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 9 Find

    ways to reduce or redistribute risk. 中文

    Main Idea

    You can make your own luck by understanding high-risk propositions

    and by working to either off-load some of the risk while still keeping the

    payoff, or finding a way to keep the risk but increase your payoff. Either way,you use uncertainty to advantage rather than ignoring it and hoping it will go

    away.Supporting Ideas

    Risk is a fact of life. It's always present in every human activity to some

    degree or another. To use risk advantageously:

    1. Decompose first-break every bet down into outcomes, odds and

    consequences. Risky situations are usually sneaky, so it will take some

    time and effort on your part to see every risk involved.

    2. Develop a simple uncertainty grid -a grid that takes the two most

    important high-risk variables and comes up with the four alternative

    scenarios for the different combinations of those variables. Keep trying

    different ideas for factors and scenarios until you get a grid that feels

    like it captures the key risks and upsides you're facing.

    3. For each of the four alternative scenarios, look for ways to reduce or

    reallocate the risk-by asking questions like: If I knew this was going to

    happen three years from now, what bets would I be making differently

    today? Look for a bet you can make that will work to your advantage in

    all four parts of the uncertainty grid.

    4. If all your potential bets stink, consider whether you wouldn't be better

    to get out of this game altogether.

    5. As a back-stop strategy, try some small side bets-a few small projects

    that will lay a foundation for your response should everything go wrong.

    Most of the time, these small investments in oddball stuff will be a

    waste of time and money but every once in a while, one of these will

    pay off big. Plant a few seeds and see what comes of it.

    Note that if your current bets fit only one of the quadrants on youruncertainty grid, you're playing a higher risk game than you might have

    realized. If you're assuming these bets are obvious or no brainers, that

    should send a warning signal you really don't fully appreciate the degree of

    risk you're taking on. Remind yourself that any type of betting is a forward-

    looking activity-whether you were right or wrong yesterday is irrelevant. The

    only thing that counts is what bets you place today.Key Thoughts

    The inevitability of risk gives the smart gambler two options. One

    is to shift or redistribute the risks a little and over time aggregate returns

    a lot. The other is, in those cases where other people are willing to

    overpay for certainty, to take the other side of those bets and take on

    risks that hold disproportionate payoffs and up the aggregate returns that

    way too.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 10 Be

    crystal clear about what it is you're betting on. 中

    文

    Main Idea

    Many times people get all caught up in the secondary issues and lose

    track of exactly what you're betting will occur. This is a losing strategy. To

    make your own luck consistently well, be very clear about what your core bet

    is. If the core bet is solid, fill in the other details. If the core bet is shaky,walk away.Supporting Ideas

    If you really understand what's going on, you should be able to clear

    away all the smoke and mirrors and encapsulate your core bet in three

    PowerPoint slides:1 Your Action

    Precisely what you're planning to do.

    The core content of your new product or strategy when all the bells and

    whistles are put to one side.

    This description should be clear and concise enough to satisfy a crankyboss.

    2 Your Intent

    What outcomes you're hoping to generate and what the value of those

    outcomes will be to your organization.

    Until you can articulate the specific outcomes you want to achieve, you

    haven't done enough planning.

    3 Your Predictions

    These will be your forecasts on what's likely to happen in the

    marketplace and your confidence level.

    It's important to be clear about what assumptions you've made and how

    likely it is those events will eventuate.

    Paradoxically, many companies are very good at talking about

    secondary issues but vague about the core bet they're making. This is a losing

    strategy because if your core bet is not sound, it doesn't matter what all the

    secondary bets and issues are. If you want to make your own luck, be very

    clear about your core bet and then worry about all the secondary issues later.

    If your core bet is shaky, concentrate on fixing that first or walk away.

    Otherwise, all you end up doing is trying to put an optimistic face on a losing

    proposition (sometimes described as putting lipstick on a pig). This type of

    window dressing never works.Key Thoughts

    The sequence for addressing the pieces of intent, prediction and

    action doesn't matter as long as you cover all three and then check how

    well each fits the others.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 11

    Understand all the follow-on bets you're locked

    into. 中文

    Main Idea

    Most bets have a domino effect-once you've made the initial bet, you're

    then locked in to several follow-on bets. Before you make your initial bet,pause and check you can live with all the follow-on bets as well. If you don't

    like what follows, save your resources and don't make the first bet either.Supporting Ideas

    You have to understand exactly what you're getting yourself into before

    you start down the path. Most objectives require a sequence of bets, and it

    isn't uncommon for follow-on bets to come automatically. The time to make

    sure you're willing to go all the way is before you take the first step, not after.

    To do this in practice:

    1. Analyze what known next steps will be required-look for all the

    predictable follow-on bets you'll reasonably be required to take. If any

    of the follow-on bets make you feel uncomfortable, sort it out now, not

    later.

    2. Look at whether you can and should expect any internal resistance to

    those follow-on bets-because this will have an impact on what you

    ultimately derive from your initial bet. If you're certain a few

    stakeholders won't be comfortable with the follow-on bets, ask yourself

    whether it will be worth all the hassle before you start. Consider how

    much power you have relative to that of the people who don't like your

    objectives. Ensure you're not in fact picking a fight you cannot win.

    Some bets in business or in life are more accurately described as chain

    reactions. Once you've made the first move, you set off a sequence of events

    that progressively reduces your options. What you're going to be doing

    tomorrow is pretty much decided by what you do today. That's fine, as long

    as you understand what you're getting into. Make certain you're prepared to

    live with the consequences.Follow-on bets are not inherently good or bad. It's just that the sooner

    you see them, the sooner you can make the judgment call whether achieving

    your objectives will be worth what you will be required to put into the effort.

    If you aren't prepared to deal with the logical follow-on bets, don't take the

    first bet.Key Thoughts

    To us, the hallmark of great leaders is that they have the capacity

    to bet well, consistently-they figure out what they need to do to achieve

    an objective and then they do it. So if you want to be an effective leader,practice your speaking and communication skills, but practice your

    Predictive Intelligence skills more. And when you select a leader-for

    yourself, your company, or your country-look more to the person's

    betting record than to his or her ability to give a great speech.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson12 skills of increased predictive intelligence 12

    Know when to call it quits and move on. 中文

    Main Idea

    Every bet you make puts you into a game of sorts. At some point or

    another, you have to decide when it's time to quit the game you're in and

    enter an entirely different game. If you can control when you exit your

    current game, you're in a much stronger position to make your own luck.Supporting Ideas

    At any time, you'll have choices:

    Stay in the game you're in as an active player-and keep on working what

    ever you're doing until someone boots you out or something happens to

    end the game for everyone.

    Grow the game you're in and target a bigger pot of rewards-allowing

    you to go after bigger and more substantial prizes in the future than you

    ever gained in the past.

    Quit the game you're in-and move to another game in a different field

    with rewards that are totally different and distinctive from anything

    you've gained in the past.

    To decide which course of action you should follow at any specific point

    in time, there are three things you need to figure out for yourself:

    1. Your current level of satisfaction with the status quo-how happy you are

    about the results achieved to date.

    2. Your prediction of the potential upside benefits if you stay in your

    current game-and whether the future upside, future downside and future

    rule makers are stable and predictable. In this step, you estimate whether

    you have more to lose or more to gain by staying with what you're doing

    at present.

    3. Your intent-the kind of results you want to achieve in the future. For

    example, do you want more of the same, or do you want something

    substantially different?When you take these three factors together, you can decide whether it

    makes more sense to stick with whatever you're currently doing or strike out

    in a different direction. Note that strictly speaking, your decisions about the

    future really should be made on the strength of your predictions of the future

    upside and your intent. Your past history really shouldn't influence your

    decision one way or another.

    Finally, there are six things you can do to enhance the effectiveness of

    the 12 skills of increased predictive intelligence:

    1. Always cover all twelve steps-so you can avoid and prevent errors of

    omission. The more thoroughly you cover all the steps, the better your

    chances of increasing your predictive intelligence. Go ahead and change

    the order to suit your circumstances, but always cover all twelve steps.

    2. Write down your thinking for each step-so you have a permanent record.

    Writing things down also forces you to think more clearly and crisply.

    You'll find over time you'll progressively sharpen your assessments and

    have a constant flow of new ideas if you get into the habit of

    documenting your thinking.

    3. Always try and go through all twelve steps quickly-in a matter of

    minutes rather than getting bogged down and taking days or weeks. You

    can go back and add more detail at a later stage, but make decisions

    quickly. In most investments, there will be an early-mover advantage

    you can and should take full advantage of. If you wait until everyone

    reaches the same conclusion, you'll miss out on some worthwhile early

    gains.

    4. Remember the sole purpose of the twelve skills is to help you makebetter bets-and not to completely resolve all questions in fine detail. Go

    through the skills, make your bet, then go through the skills again and

    make a better bet the next time around. Get back to work rather than

    endlessly obsessing over the system involved.

    5. Recognize that acting in the face of uncertainty is scary-because you

    have to act before all the facts are in. As new information comes to

    hand, what appeared to be an intelligent move in the past may seem like

    a real bonehead play today. That's okay-it comes with the territory. Keep

    looking forward, and use the twelve skills to enhance the amount of

    predictive intelligence you use in the future. Do that consistently and

    you'll be making your own luck.

    6. Enjoy the game-recognizing that some of your bets will not pan out and

    some of your bets will be great successes over the course of your career.

    Enjoy participating in the game for its own sake. Relax a little and have

    some fun.Key Thoughts

    As you build your Predictive Intelligence, you won't become a

    different person. You will become a better version of you, more able to

    achieve the results that you believe will contribute to the kind of future

    you want to create. Take pleasure and profit in the game, even when you

    lose, and keep on learning. Part of learning is taking the lesson, positive

    or negative, but not taking every loss as a personal defeat nor taking

    every win as confirmation of your personal and inherent value. You'll

    continue to make mistakes, and lots of them, but still perhaps not as

    many and, over time, only a few of the really bad ones.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson

    You can learn from the past, but you can't change the past. Dream

    forward and use your Predictive Intelligence to create the future you

    want.

    Eileen Shapiro＆Howard Stevenson ......